29 May 2012 (Renew Grid)
“The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) says it foresees potential electricity shortages within the coming decade as electricity use in Texas continues to hit new records…The newly revised Capacity, Demand and Reserves (CDR) report shows a reserve margin of 9.8% by 2014. That is well below ERCOT's 13.75% target for electric generation capacity that exceeds the forecast peak demand on the grid. The 2014 outlook includes slightly more than 75 GW of power to serve an anticipated peak demand of 68 GW. “By 2015, projected reserves are expected to drop to 6.9%, with 76.6 GW of resources available to serve a peak demand of 71.6 GW. The 13.75% target-planning reserve margin, approved by ERCOT's board in 2010, is set to ensure enough power is available for contingencies such as extreme weather and unplanned power plant outages…”
click to enlarge“Peak electricity use in the ERCOT region is driven by high temperatures and economic conditions. The mid- and long-term peak-demand forecast is based on a 15-year average weather profile combined with economic factors such as per capita income, population, gross domestic product and various employment measures. The report does not include the outlook for this summer… “…[T]he outlook for summer 2013 actually has improved since the previous CDR was released in December 2011…[because] about 1.2 GW of previously "mothballed" capacity has returned to service…[including] nearly 600 MW of new renewable power [105 MW of biomass, 432 MW of wind power and 59 MW of solar power]…By 2016, the forecast includes 3.6 GW of new gas-fired capacity, more than 2 GW of new wind power, about 900 MW of new coal-fired generation and 60 MW of solar power…New wind power will include about 600 MW of coastal wind, which has historically provided significant power to the grid when it is needed most - late in the afternoon on hot summer days…The grid operator has also incorporated an increase in demand-response (DR) services...”
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