Kerry-Ann Adamson and Lisa Jerram, 3Q 2012 (Pike Research/Navigant)
“…The fuel cell industry saw shipments break the 20,000 barrier for the first time in 2011 thanks to a 2009 to 2011 compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 83%. However, this aggregate figure hides the fact that the fuel cell industry has continued to exhibit a growth/contraction pattern…During 2011, for example, system shipments in the portable fuel cell sector contracted by 16% on a year-over-year basis. In the process, the sector lost a large number of companies. “The stationary sector posted the highest growth in 2011, primarily driven by the surge of interest in residential combined heat and power (resCHP) systems in Japan following the meltdown of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. Meanwhile, companies such as FuelCell Energy ramped up production. As a result, system shipments in the global stationary sector in 2011 grew by 75% over 2010 and posted a 2009 to 2011 CAGR of 63%.”
click to enlarge“…[G]rowth was countered somewhat by a dip in the number of megawatts shipped. In 2011, California shifted its subsidies from a capital expenditures (CAPEX) system to a performance-based system…[and shipments declined] due to the time required for recertification of their systems…The impact of shifting that policy – in one state, in one country – on the global picture does highlight that the fuel cell industry is still far from robust… “Looking out to 2017, Pike Research forecasts that the fuel cell industry, including all applications in the stationary, portable, and transport sectors, will reach $15.7 billion. Due to a jump in orders in 1Q 2012, the industry is on target to surpass the billion-dollar mark by the end of 2012. The period 2014/2015 remains critical in terms of transitioning from a niche industry to starting to move into the mainstream…[A]ll commercially available electrolytes saw shipments in 2011. Yet, only solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs) and direct methanol fuel cells (DMFCs) posted growth…”
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