17 December 2012 (North American Windpower)
“Offshore wind energy installations are expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate of 44% between 2011 and 2016, with 18 GW of installations expected by the end of that period, according to a new analysis from MAKE Consulting. Much of that growth can be attributed to favorable policy in Europe and China…Europe will [account] for 62% of total installations in the 2011-2016 period…77% will be driven by Germany and the U.K…striving toward their ambitious 2020 offshore wind targets of 18 GW and 10 GW, respectively. “…[T]he Asia Pacific region is expected to install 6.6 GW of offshore wind through 2016, representing 36% of the global offshore wind energy market. Although China will remain the largest offshore wind market in the Asia Pacific, the emergence of South Korea, Vietnam and Taiwan will supplement growth during that period…[P]rogress in the U.S. is expected to be lackluster, due to low gas and electricity prices, an ample onshore resource and weak political commitment to renewables…”
click to enlarge“Offshore wind asset ownership will remain dominated by European utilities and developers, with Vattenfall and DONG Energy leading the way…MAKE expects increasing interest in asset ownership from the financial sector. Pension funds and insurance companies are attracted to the sector due to the return expectations of new developments relative to other asset classes, as well as the improving risk profile of offshore wind, as the industry matures. China Three Gorges, Guodian and Marubeni are the top Asian offshore wind asset owners… “Lowering the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) will be key to supporting future offshore wind energy growth…[T]he current LCOE range for offshore wind is 120-180 euros/MWh, with most assets around 140-160 euros/MWh…The report estimates that larger turbines with resultant fewer cables and foundations mean that capital costs could drop by nearly 17%, and the LCOE could drop by 20% by the end of the decade, toward 115-120 euros/MWh…[T]ransmission infrastructure build-out is another challenge…”
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