Finlay Colville, 4 June 2013 (PV Tech)
“…PV capital equipment spending and technology adoption is barely capturing an afterthought today…[T]he dearth of action could lead to the conclusion that technology innovation and the PV industry are mutually exclusive (aside from the R&D efforts of a small handful of historic technology innovators)…[But that] is just a symptom of a reset phase for technology and manufacturing within the PV industry…[and an] indication of the difficulties any technology segment is confronted with when there are diverse and competing voices advocating different technology and process flows… “…[R]eminding suppliers that equipment spending is at a seven or eight- year low in 2013 is barely news…[E]veryone knew this fact over 12-18 months ago when orders dried up…[O]rder books are depleted…[But analyses that show future equipment spending could remain at 2013 levels are] somewhat naïve and short-sighted…[They are] likely more an indication of the errors in analysis that come from doing simplistic top-down nameplate-capacity/end-market-demand comparisons to generate CapEx activity.”
click to enlarge“There is only one way to forecast CapEx, and that is bottom-up from the production line level, with segmentation by process flow variant and tool alternative. And comparing this directly to equipment supplier tool type shipments and market-share analyses. Any top-down analysis misses this activity completely, and generates misleading data…Centrotherm was the leading PV equipment supplier during 2006 and 2007. Applied Materials then dominated PV tool revenues for four years from 2008 to 2011. In 2012, Meyer Burger recognised the most PV specific revenues for the first time. In 2013, leading revenues are likely to be assigned to one of GT Advanced Technologies, Hanergy Solar (formerly known as Apollo Solar) or Meyer Burger. “…[R]ankings should be done purely on revenue recognition, not on tool shipment…[O]f the three prospective leaders for 2013, only GT Advanced Technologies is currently shipping based on a low-risk backlog and firm delivery dates from customers. Hanergy’s revenues are exclusively linked to financial transactions between Hanergy Solar (as the parent company) and the former Apollo Solar (as the in-house turnkey line supplier for the multiple Chinese a-Si based fabs of Apollo)…Claiming the number one PV equipment supplier position when revenues…[and] new order intake has been so low for over 12 months - may come over as somewhat misplaced euphoria…[But it] is only a matter of time until technology spending tops the rankings again for the entire manufacturing segment.”
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