Kerry Bleskan, June 8, 2012 (SNL)
“Most studies predict the cost of wind energy will continue to fall through at least 2030…[according to The Past and Future Cost of Wind Energy by] a collaboration among workers from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, with assistance from European researchers. The crux of the report is that while future trends, drivers and constraints are difficult to predict, the cost of wind-generated electricity will probably continue to decrease in the coming decades. “Onshore wind's levelized cost of energy, or LCOE, fell by a factor of more than three between 1980 and 2000…[and then] driven by rising commodity and raw materials prices, increased labor costs, improved manufacturer profitability, and turbine upscaling…[rose] in spite of continued performance improvements…”
click to enlarge“That upward trend appears to have been reversed by improved performance and the return of low turbine prices, the team said…LCOE is at an all-time low in certain wind classes, the researchers said, notably in areas with low- or medium-speed winds…[They have fallen] an estimated 8% between 2007 and 2010… “…[I]nto the future, the LCOE of wind energy is expected to continue to fall, at least on a global basis and within fixed wind resource classes…[though how much] is highly uncertain…[ranging] between zero and 40% by 2030. When researchers removed the most extreme estimates on both sides, the range of estimates became a 20% to 30% reduction by 2030, with the more dramatic reductions happening in the earlier years. Among the factors that could lower LCOE in coming years are efficiencies in manufacturing, taller towers, larger rotors, advanced drivetrains, better resource assessments and improved operations and maintenance practices…”
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