Ray Lian, 31 August 2012 (PV Tech)
“…[I]t is now becoming possible to form a picture of what the 2012 PV shipment rankings will look like…[T]he landscape of global PV module manufacturing has changed significantly in the past few quarters, with gross margins in the single-digit percentage range at best. So, in such a difficult environment for all upstream PV manufacturers, who will prevail at year-end[?]… “Based on existing company guidance and…estimates of projected module shipments by company through to the end of 2012…[a] most-likely top-10 list for 2012…seems more like a reshuffle of 2011, with JA Solar replacing Kyocera at the 10th position being the only notable change…[I]it shows that JA Solar has now successfully repositioned from a (dominantly pure-play) cell supplier to a leading PV module supplier, and avoided the inevitable ‘squeeze’ of being a legacy pure-play midstream player…”
click to enlarge“…[Yingli may take] the No.1 position for the first time ever – a position that was previously occupied by Suntech and First Solar…Yingli is also set to challenge the world record of PV module shipment within any calendar year, and become only the second company to post an annual shipment level that exceeds the 2GW-threshold. (Suntech was the first in 2011 with 2,096MW of shipment, and Suntech is likely to be ranked No.2 in 2012). “Trina Solar, First Solar and Canadian Solar are likely to occupy the next 3 ranking positions in 2012…[J]ust 50MW of difference may change the relative positions. A similar situation is likely for SunPower, Jinko Solar, and Hanwha SolarOne, competing for 7th place…Sharp Solar is likely to be the only Japanese company…Seven of the top-10 companies for 2012 are China-based manufacturers. And the other 3 are characterized by having dominant manufacturing presence across Southeast Asia and Japan…[M]odule shipment from the top-10 companies will be equivalent to almost 50% of global module demand in 2012, increasing from 46% in 2011...one consequence of the global PV shakeout…”
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