Eric Wesoff, April 25, 2013 (Greentech Media)
“GTM Research Senior Analyst Shyam Mehta…[provided] real-world data points [on the solar market at the recent GTM Solar Summit]…[1] The performance gap between p-type mono-crystalline silicon and multi-crystalline silicon is narrowing…[T]he value proposition for p-type mono continues to deteriorate…P-type might make sense in highly real estate-constrained Japan, but in the long term, Mehta sees n-type mono as a key to maintaining the efficiency advantage…Panasonic, SunPower and Yingli are working on n-type cells. “…[Though] 60-cell modules are the current standard but…72-cell, 96-cell, and 128-cell modules available…[L]arge modules can reduce balance-of-system costs by up to 7 cents per watt…The 60-cell modules still have an advantage over larger modules in that they are more rigid, can be carried by one person, and more modules can be fit onto complicated rooftops…[W]e will start to see increasing numbers of larger and different sized modules…”
click to enlarge“Spot pricing for polysilicon, as well as for cells and modules, has actually risen 5 percent to 15 percent this year…81 percent of ASP reduction over the last two years has come from margin evaporation and polysilicon…Short-term risks to module pricing include the EU anti-dumping decision set for late May or early June, a Chinese tariff on U.S. polysilicon, and the uncertainty of consumables pricing… “Larger firms will retire older uncompetitive capacity…[but] if all non-Chinese capacity was to disappear -- there would still be an oversupply in the rest of the world…[A] bankrupt and insolvent Suntech Wuxi continuing to operate while propped up by city government is not consolidation. And because of this ‘messy roadmap’ to rationalization…overcapacity [will continue for] the next twelve to eighteen months…”
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